SATURDAY AM: This weekend, it’s a game of Marvel trying to beat Marvel at the weekend box office. Spider-Man: Brand New Day continued to post an all-time record opening day/previews yesterday with $168M, feasibly outstripping the previous first day record owned by Avengers: Endgame ($157.4M). Still, there’s isn’t a unison out there that Brand New Day will take down Avengers: Endgame‘s all-time opening record of $357.1M. Some believe it boils down to Sunday where a $5M swing is possible. Sony is calling their 3-day weekend at $325M, which is a wonderful second-best ever start in North America, but others think the opening here is closer to $350M+.
If Brand New Day gets above $105M today, then it has a better shot of beating Avengers: Endgame‘s start. Brand New Day came close to having a better pure Friday than Avengers: Endgame after you back out previews, $96M to $97.4M. Avengers: Endgame went on to do $109.2M on its Saturday which was +12% from its pure Friday. That Russo Brothers directed movie eased -17% on Sunday and the thinking is that Brand New Day is down between -10% to -15% on Sunday from Saturday.
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How is walk-up business? Very similar to No Way Home‘s. In Screen Engine/Rentrak PostTrak exits, 33% said they bought their tickets same-day for Brand New Day, which is not far from No Way Home‘s 35%.
However this winds up, of course, it’s the biggest ever domestic opening for Sony, stratospheres above Spider-Man: No Way Home’s $260.1M. It’s also a record start for director Destin Daniel Cretton, Zendaya and the second best for Tom Holland after Endgame.
PLF screens have caught 24% of Brand New Day‘s weekend in its web with 3D accounting for 17% of the gross so far. Unlike Odyssey, Brand New Day, especially given its family appeal, doesn’t need to live or die on PLF with many taking it in on 2D screens.
As far as audience exits, Brand New Day is looking real similar to No Way Home with a definite recommend of 88% (versus previous pic’s 90%) from PostTrak, its fourth A CinemaScore among the Holland Spider-Man (to No Way Home‘s A+), Biggest demo was 18-24 at 36% (vs No Way Home‘s 42%), with a 61% to 39% male-female split (vs previous pic’s 62%/38%).
Broken out men over and under 25 showed up at 30% apiece while women under 25 were next at 21%, followed by women over 25 at 18%. Diversity demos are 36% Caucasian, 28% Hispanic and Latino, 20% Black, 10% Asian American and 6% Native American and other. The 18-34 set reps 63% of Brand New Day‘s moviegoers versus No Way Home‘s 68%. Over 35 demo grew with Brand New Day at 21% versus No Way Home‘s 15%.
Of those who went, 58% told PostTrak that it was part of a franchise they love, 47% said it looked fun and entertaining, 41% went for the cast as a whole, 39% went for Holland and 29% went for Zendaya.
Brand New Day is playing everywhere but best in South, South Central and West. The Regal Irvine Spectrum is the movie’s top grossing venue with more than $385K. The fact that Brand New Day is reaching record levels sans Imax provides more hope for Disney with Marvel Studios’ Avengers: Doomsday at Christmas given how Imax is committed to Warner Bros/Legendary’s Dune Part Three.
While we don’t have an official update on international, over in China, Brand New Day is easily No. 1 with over $71M since yesterday after a Wednesday open. There was a gap in the Holland Spider-Mans in the Middle Kingdom. No Way Home wasn’t cleared to play, hence there wasn’t a legal way to watch the movie. The previous pic there in 2019, Far From Home, opened to a reported $95M (not accounting for currency swings and inflation).
How is Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey doing in the shadow of a behemoth like Brand New Day? Very well, thank you, with a $51M third weekend, -43%, the best third frame the Oscar winning filmmaker has ever seen at the domestic box office. Running cume is $396.5M for the Universal theatrical release at 3,861 theaters. When does Odysseus wrap up his journey stateside? The outlook is a half billion for the latest Nolan, which if that happens would be his second highest grossing movie after Dark Knight ($534M domestic).
As we told you, for all movies, this is a record weekend ahead of the final April weekend of 2019 when Avengers: Endgame led all pics to $402M. Current estimate is $434M, +262% from the same frame a year ago when Disney/Marvel’s Fantastic Four: First Steps led in its second frame, and +195% from last weekend’s $147.3M.
1.) Spider-Man: Brand New Day (Sony) 4,487 theaters, Fri $168M, 3-day $325M-$350M+/Wk 1
2.) The Odyssey (Uni) 3,861 (-81) Fri $14.5M (-44% from last Friday), 3-day $51M (-43%), Total $395.5M/Wk 3
3. Toy Story 5 (Dis) 3,035 (-340) theaters, Fri $1.8M (-39%) 3-day $6.2M (-39%), Total $461.5M/Wk 7
4. Minions & Monsters (Uni) 3,203 (-363) theaters, Fri $1.66M (-43%), 3-day $5.6M (-43%), total $168.1M/Wk 5
5. Moana (Dis) 3,010 (-1005) theaters, Fri $1.6M (-51%), 3-day $5.3M (-50%), Total $114.7M/Wk 4
6. Hadestown (BST) 1,567 (-382) theaters Fri $560K (-86%), 3-day $2M (-80%), Total $18.2M /Wk 2
The Bleecker Street Crosswalk/LD Entertainment Broadway capture film has outgrossed Disney’s live-feature capture of Hamilton ($16.9M final domestic).
7. The Invite (A24) 792 (-1,240) theaters, Fri $355K (-54%) 3-day $1.1M (-58%), Total $22.6M/Wk 6
8. I Want Your Sex (Mag) 678 theaters, Fri $245K 3-day $570K/Wk 1
The Greg Araki directed kinky comedy starring Olivia Wilde (whose Invite is above) and Charli XCX is 89% certified fresh with critics. New York and LA locations had ok numbers, we hear. The result here is similar to Neon’s Nic Winding Refn genre title, Her Private Hell, last weekend which opened to $538K at 675 (but is dropping to around a second weekend of $36K at 147 sites for a running ten-day cume of $842K).
9. Evil Dead Burn (New Line) 642 (-1,743) theaters, Fri $150K (-82%), 3-day $527K (-81%), Total $31.2M/Wk 4
10. Obsession (Foc) 430 (-773) theaters, Fri $140K (-71%) 3-day $450K (-71%) Total $262.7M/Wk 12
FRIDAY MIDDAY UPDATE: Sony/Marvel Studios’ Spider-Man: Brand New Day is heading for an all-time record opening day (including previews) between $167 million-$173 million. That easily would kick the first day/preview opening record of Avengers: Endgame ($157.4M) to the side, not to mention the U.S./Canada debut here is well ahead of Spider-Man: No Way Home‘s first Friday/previews of $121.96M. This is according to industry sources, not Sony right now.
Some would like to call an opening domestic record ahead of Avengers: Endgame‘s $357.1M, but we’re not there yet. Could be. But best estimate at this point in time is north of $330M at 4,487 theaters, which of course would make it the second-best opening at the North American box office ahead of No Way Home‘s $260.1M in 2021.
If by some chance a hurricane wipes out several theaters and Brand New Day falls back to $280M — c’mon, that’s an awesome opening, and $20M ahead of No Way Home‘s start. That said, I’m hearing the hourlies here for Brand New Day are pulling ahead of No Way Home‘s. It ain’t stopping.
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Back out the previews today and we’re at a $95M Friday. If Saturday holds flat with another $95M, Sunday would see a 16% decline for around $80M. That’s one path to a $342M start. If today minus previews is $100M (meaning a total $172M Friday/previews), then Spidey has the firepower to take out Avengers: Endgame.
Universal’s The Odyssey is doing fantastic against the competition with an expected $52M weekend, -42%, the best third frame for Nolan since The Dark Knight at $42.6M. This is after a third Friday that’s shaping up to be $15M at 3,861. This is going to get close to the four-century mark by Sunday with a running total of $396.5M.
The overall North American marketplace is looking like an all-time record too, beating the $402M made by all films during Avengers: Endgame‘s opening weekend (April 26-28, 2019). We’re hearing we could do $5M-$10M higher than that, so between $407M to $412M.
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A lot more records will be broken, i.e., for PLF screens like Dolby, 4DX (which is seeing $4.5M opening weekend record after all-time high previews of $1.3M, ahead of The Super Mario Galaxy Movie‘s $1.2M), as well as ScreenX, which Brand New Day was shot for, which is looking at a record $4M after beating Deadpool & Wolverine‘s preview night of $1.3M in that format.
FRIDAY AM: We’re told that in the late-evening hours, walk-up business exploded for Sony’s Spider-Man: Brand New Day which now has a revised number of $72 million. It was so much money that Sony couldn’t count; a rare air for any studio. That’s quite the jump from what we previously heard, and it beats the former all-time $60M preview domestic record held by Disney/Marvel Studios’ Avengers: Endgame. PostTrak exits were also high last night with 5 stars from general audiences, parents and kids under 12.
That figure, as we told you earlier, includes the Prime Video members early access Wednesday night screenings and showtimes that began Thursday at 12 noon. Avengers: Endgame made its preview cash post 6PM when it bowed on its Thursday back in 2019.
What this means is that Brand New Day is destined for a $100M+ first Friday including previews, a feat only five other movies have accomplished previously: Avengers: Endgame ($157.4M), Spider-Man: No Way Home ($121.96M), Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($119.1M), Avengers: Infinity War ($106.3M) and Star Wars: Last Jedi ($104.6M). Of these Infinity War had the lowest preview at $39M, where as the other four were well north of $45M.
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If you look around at some of the multiplexes in major markets, when it comes to the majority of showtimes, it’s essentially the Brand New Day and Odyssey show this weekend, which happens in a Darwinian ‘survival of the fittest’ theatrical marketplace. The AMC Lincoln Center in NYC is showing Brand New Day 36x today, AMC Century City in LA has 40 showtimes devoted to the pic, while Regal Sherman Oaks Galleria has 43 showtimes and the chain’s L.A. Live with a massive 44.
Yesterday with the arrival of Spidey, Universal’s The Odyssey saw its lowest grossing day so far (which is still a great weekday number for a second Thursday) with an estimated $10.2M, -25% from Wednesday, and running cume of $344.4M. The Odyssey triumphs with the best second week for Christopher Nolan, ahead of Dark Knight‘s second week which was $112.4M.
Here’s the week’s top 5
- Odyssey (Uni) 3,942 theaters, Wk $145M (-27%), Total $344.4M/Wk 2
- Moana (Dis) 4,015 theaters, Wk $17.5M (-39%), Total $109.4M/Wk 3
- Toy Story 5 (Dis) 3,375 theaters, Wk $16.8M (-25%), Total $455.3M/Wk 6
- Minions & Monsters (Uni) 3,386 theaters, Wk $16.75M (-27%), Total $162.5M/Wk 4
- Hadestown (BST) 1,949 theaters, Wk $16.2M/Wk 1
PREVIOUS EXCLUSIVE: When it comes to breaking box office records this weekend, look out, because Spider-Man: Brand New Day will do whatever a spider can, starting with tonight as the Sony, Marvel Studios and Amy Pascal production is outstripping the Thursday night previews of the 2021 previous chapter Spider-Man: No Way Home, which did$50M. All of this makes sense given the $80M advance ticket sales figure we heard about for the Tom Holland and Zendaya $225M net production.
No Way Home (which had previews begin at 3PM on its first Thursday) posted the third best previews ever behind 2019’s Avengers: Endgame‘s $60M (6PM start time) and 2015’s Star Wars: Force Awakens‘ $57M Thursday night. Now with more than $50M, Brand New Day stands as the third best U.S./Canada previews ever for a theatrical release, the best previews ever for a Sony movie, and the best previews post Covid. The Destin Daniel Cretton directed Spider-Man sequel began showtimes at 12 noon today, and its preview cash will include Wednesday night’s Prime Video member screening. Some sources were hearing that Brand New Day‘s preview money tonight was exceeding Avengers: Endgame. We’ll know by tom’w morning if it’s higher.
No Way Home‘s previews of $50M only repped 41% of its $121.96M first Friday. That resulted in the second best opening ever at the domestic box office with $260.1M behind Avengers: Endgame‘s all-time high of $357.1M. Force Awakens‘ $57M previews accounted for 48% of its first Friday which was $119.1M. At one point in time Force Awakens 3-day start of $247.96 held the all-time opening record in North America, but it eventually fell to fourth. NRG had a low domestic opening estimate of $195M for Brand New Day, but exhibitors and other tracking services such as Greenlight Analytics believe it’s significantly higher from $260M to even maybe $300M.
Some analysts begin to nerd out arguing that we need to take into account start time for the previews here on Brand New Day, and the time of year before making forecasts. Seriously, it doesn’t matter: this is a ton of money and the most we’ve seen in quite some time, putting away the previous post Covid preview record of $38.5M belonging to Deadpool & Wolverine two Julys ago.
And the other amazing thing about this Spider-Man is that he’s raking in all this cash without the help of Imax screens (which we saw Barbie do three years ago as Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer claimed them).
So far, Brand New Day has the best Rotten Tomatoes audience score out of the nine live-action Spider-Man movies with 98%. Critical score is strong at 90% certified fresh, which is just under the 93% of No Way Home.
Tonight’s estimates are according to sources.
