Democrat James Talarico has pulled off an election win that was unthinkable for years, flipping a Senate seat in red Texas, NBC News projects — an against-the-odds victory that dislodged Republicans’ three-decade grip on the state, overcame a $168 million ad assault by the world’s wealthiest man and rebuked the MAGA movement in a state President Donald Trump won handily three times.
Talarico, a state lawmaker and seminarian, defeated Trump-aligned state Attorney General Ken Paxton after he gained national prominence on a message centered on wealth disparity and corruption. All the while, he integrated Christian themes and sought to transcend traditional politics in a state where his party hadn’t won in years.
He campaigned on a “top versus bottom instead of left versus right” message, telling supporters that the top 1% of wealthy Americans wanted the rest of the country to fight with one another instead of keep a check on those in power.
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Meanwhile, on the Republican side, the “I told you so’s” were flying before voting even ended.
Paxton has battled personal scandals for years, but Trump endorsed him over GOP Sen. John Cornyn in the primary anyway. In the general election, a line of prominent Republicans publicly pledged support for Talarico rather than back Paxton.
The Republican-controlled state House impeached Paxton in 2023 before the state Senate acquitted him in a vote for which Trump took credit after he pressured the lawmakers. Paxton’s estranged wife, Angela Paxton, a state senator, publicly revealed that she had sought a divorce on “biblical grounds.” She ended up cutting an ad urging her party to support the ticket without ever mentioning Paxton.
While Cornyn said he would back the Republican ticket, he never specifically endorsed Paxton, and he even held a joint fundraiser with former President George W. Bush for Republican Senate candidates that didn’t include him.
Paxton still had plenty of firepower behind him, including nine figures’ worth of super PAC donations from Elon Musk. But it wasn’t enough.
The end result: Democrats have grabbed control of a key Senate seat on Trump’s watch in a state that once epitomized the movement he built.
Instead, it was Talarico who mobilized voters in the Lone Star State. Early voting numbers showed Texans showing up in record-breaking numbers in many counties, and Latino voters swung back toward Democrats after having supported Trump in the state in 2024. Early voting data showed that Hispanic voters had come out in massive numbers, including surges of young people and those who hadn’t cast ballots in 2022 or 2024.
Talarico’s campaign caught fire early. When he launched his bid in Round Rock in 2025, he drew 1,500 people to a rally later that day. He went on to shatter fundraising records with the help of small-dollar donors from across the country.
Talarico focused on appealing to independents and Republicans unhappy with Paxton’s history or with their party’s 30-year rule in the state. Two members of the legendary Bush family in Texas — Bush’s daughter Barbara and his brother Neil — threw their support behind Talarico.
Talarico’s campaign early on made a strategic decision not to campaign with surrogates outside the state, trying to prevent Paxton from drawing parallels to national Democrats who might not play the same way in Texas. That meant there was no lift from the likes of former President Barack Obama, who rallied in states such as Michigan to stadium-sized crowds.
Talarico had a knack for capturing the spotlight nonetheless. Podcaster Joe Rogan, who famously backed Trump in 2024, hosted Talarico on his show, urging him to run for president. Talarico’s invites from Stephen Colbert and Jimmy Kimmel drew the White House’s ire, leading to his being blocked from TV airtime, under a claim of a rarely enforced equal time rule. But that only meant interest exploded, generating millions of views and fundraising.
