EXCLUSIVE: A year after selling out 70MM Imax showtimes, Universal‘s second Christopher Nolan movie after his multi-Oscar-winning Oppenheimer, The Odyssey, finally arrives.
While we had a puffy projection last week for Disney’s Moana of $130M in worldwide box office fueled by lofty tracking, few sources see the feature take of Homer’s epic poem getting sidelined by sirens, or moviegoers seduced by calypso and held captive on a deserted island. The big question is how much does The Odyssey over-index, and if it doesn’t, it’s due to appointment viewing as the pitch here is to watch the feature in Imax, the way it was shot and meant to be seen. There isn’t a major studio wide entry standing in the way of the movie and its star-studded cast of Matt Damon, Robert Pattinson, Zendaya, Tom Holland, Anne Hathaway, Jon Bernthal and Lupita Nyong’o in its second weekend.
Currently, we’re hearing an opening frame of $85 million-$100 million domestic, with another $110M overseas in 73 territories and 22,700 screens for a global start that’s bound to be $200M+. We’re told that this is the same set of markets Uni launched Oppenheimer in, though Italy and Greece are going day-and-date this time (after late August releases last time). Korea, Japan and China are going later. Also, Oppenheimer bowed on 17,500 offshore screens to $98.7M and a global start of $181.1M. Unlike last time with that eventual Best Picture Oscar winner, which had a sister blockbuster on the marquee in Warner Bros’ Barbie, there isn’t another new studio wide release this weekend.
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What about the World Cup? The UK, a lucrative Nolan market is in the running, and the England-Argentina semifinal Wednesday. Should England make it to Sunday’s final, does Odysseus fall to his knees? Sources believe audiences will find the movie on an off-World Cup day (Oppenheimer in reported B.O. opened to $13.9M in the UK and legged out to $75M+), not to mention they’ve already bought their tickets in advance — read four Imax 70MM sites in Europe went on sale a year out at the BFI Imax London and London Science Museum. Sellouts a year ago also include the Melbourne Museum Imax and the Oskar Imax Plaza in Prague.
Oppenheimer, starring Cillian Murphy, Emily Blunt and Robert Downey Jr and about the man who built the atom bomb, saw its highest-grossing territories from UK, China ($61.6M), Germany ($52.7M), France ($43.2M), Italy ($31M) and Australia ($29.7M). The expectation is that Nolan will rally again in UK, France, and Italy with Odyssey. There’s also hope around India for Odyssey, with that country delivering $19M to Oppenheimer. Nolan, Damon and Holland recently made a stop in Mumbai, in addition to the London world premiere and a stop in Paris. The NYC U.S. premiere is tonight, and the review embargo lifts Wednesday morning.
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The three-hour R-rated movie sets sail in the U.S. on Thursday with 2 p.m. previews. How front-loaded is it due to all the large-format screen sales? Currently, non-Universal sources tell us that advance ticket sales are very robust, with around $30M -$40M (Wicked: For Good was over $60M, Deadpool & Wolverine was $50M). How much of that is for this weekend remains the question as there are sales for Monday and Tuesday.
Even if Odyssey comes in at the lower end of its range of $85M, it’s because audiences are waiting to land the best seats with the best showtimes. Plus you have to consider the multiples on Nolan’s movie off their U.S./Canada openings, i.e. Oppenheimer (a solid 4x off a $82.4M bow to $330M domestic final), Dunkirk (3.75x, $50.5M opening, $189.7M domestic), and Inception ($62.7M opening, final domestic $292.5M). There’s no audience score yet on Rotten Tomatoes, but there’s been positive word of mouth from the media who’ve watched the epic, who are already anointing it with awards-season buzz. The other fun-fun here is that it’s arguably the first time that two major stars, who are married, have had two back-to-back movies coming out within a month’s time: We’re talking Zendaya and Tom Holland who co-star (and don’t have any scenes together) in Odyssey, but are headlining Sony/Marvel Studio’s Spider-Man: Brand New Day on July 31.
Nolan’s films, including Oppenheimer, Tenet, Dunkirk, Interstellar, Inception and The Dark Knight trilogy, have earned more than $6 billion at the global box office and have won 18 Oscars and earned 49 nominations, including Best Picture and Best Director for Oppenheimer.
Moana hopes to ease 55% in weekend 2 domestic in the $20M range, counting on females to show up. The Dwayne Johnson movie made $4.4M stateside yesterday, taking its four-day total to $47.5M.
