Disney is hoping that moviegoers come to the water, no matter how hard the studio tries with the live-action version of its hit 2016 animated movie, Moana, which is looking to hang ten again at the box office with a global start of $130M, domestic in the $60M+ range.
Directed by Thomas Kail (Disney+ feature of Broadway’s staged Hamilton), the pic has Dwayne Johnson reprising his role from the animated franchise, demigod Maui, with Catherine Laga’aia stepping in for Auli’i Carvalho to play the title role.
The question about all of this is whether it’s too much Moana too soon, just like there was too much Super too soon (meaning Supergirl being a year after Superman). The live-action version of Moana was greenlighted before former Disney CEO Bob Iger decided to flip the Moana Disney+ series into a feature animated sequel, Moana 2, which literally played theaters 19 months ago. It opened to a massive Thanksgiving 5-day North American record of $225.4M ($139.7M 3-day), and a toon-record $389M global, legging out to $460.4M U.S./Canada and over $1 billion worldwide. The original Moana posted an $82M 5-day opening ($56.6M 3-day) over the 2016 Thanksgiving holiday period.
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Something else to potentially consider this weekend is that we’re in a bit of a funk at the summer box office after the lackluster openings for Warner Bros/DC’s Supergirland Illumination/Universal’s Minions & Monsters, but peg that to product no one was begging for. Still, there doesn’t seem to be anything to worry about: Universal’s The Odyssey and Sony/Marvel Studio’s Spider-Man: Brand New Day are expected to clean up. Also, the domestic box office is on the verge of passing the $5B mark, 13% ahead of 2025, while summer (first weekend of May through July 5) stands at $2.3B, 12% ahead of the same frame a year ago.
Disney seems to have no frets as the original Moana is one of the studio’s most popular movies with 1.5 billion hours watched, and annually ranking as one of Disney+’s top ten films since the service launched in November 2019. The question is whether the live-action take of the ancient Polynesian set story can blow a volcano at the B.O. with families lining up beyond what the horizon is showing. Tracking shows Moana with a $75M North American start, but advance ticket sales, which are around $4M, point to a $60M-plus opening. The surfer girl is booked at 3,900 theaters, with the wind power of Imax, PLFs, 3D and 4DX against her back. Target demo is all women and families.
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Overseas she has a 91% footprint except for Japan (end of July) and Italy (end of August) with an expected $70M-$75M foreign B.O. opening. Like-for-like comps are Universal’s live-action take of last summer’s DreamWorks Animation title How to Train Your Dragon ($96M international opening) as well as Disney’s own 2023 live-action take of Little Mermaid ($61M int’l B.O. bow). Latin America, Australia/NZ, France, Germany and the UK are the slam dunks for Moana. Pacific Asia is challenged, though Japan can pop (Moana 2 minted a reported $33M+ there).
No reviews yet for Moana. The LA premiere is tonight at the Hollywood Bowl. Previews stateside start at 2 p.m. Thursday.
Warner Bros has New Line’s Sam Raimi produced Evil Dead Burn in 3,000 theaters domestic. It’s expected to do in the teens. The Sébastien Vanicek (2023’s Infested) directed follow-up to 2023 reboot Evil Dead Rise stars Wednesday‘s Hunter Doohan in a story about curses lingering too long in a family, and the undead which haunts them. Evil Dead Rise was originally destined to HBO Max before Warners realized the goods and switched it to a theatrical release where it opened to $24.5M domestic, and finaled at $67.2M stateside and more than $147M WW, a very profitable title netting $46M off a $15M production cost.
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Evil Dead Burn is trailing Evil Dead Rise in overall first choice, but the R-rated movie is best with women overall, and men over 25.
Sony Pictures Classics
Sony Pictures Classics has their Sundance pick-up, the comedy Gail Daughtry and the Celebrity Sex Pass in 1,200 theaters. Zoey Deutch plays a small town hairdresser who comes to Hollywood to even the score with her fiancee, who has already bedded his celebrity sex pass. Gail sets her eyes on her dream guy, Jon Hamm. Hamm co-stars with John Slattery. It’s 81% certified fresh with critics.
A24’s Olivia Wilde directed Annapurna production, The Invite, is expanding to 1,600 sites in its third weekend after 28 bookings last weekend. Both Gail Daughtry and The Invite are looking at less than $5M apiece for the weekend.
Universal’s second weekend of Illumination’s Minions & Monsters is eyeing a -45% second weekend decline (maybe even a better hold coming off of a Saturday impacted July 4th weekend) with around $20M. Pic’s running total through Monday in U.S./Canada is $67.9M.
