SATURDAY AM: Disney’s live-action Moana wound up with a better than expected Friday/previews of $18.4M and an A- CinemaScore, underscoring the sheer divide between audience and critics. Also, Moana earned an overall A with women, and an A+ with the under 18 demo. But Maui and the Island Princess are still looking at a below expectations opening in the $42M-$46M range. More audience stats show that while the overall definite recommend on PostTrak (the true metric of word of mouth) is a good 63% definite recommend for overall audience, women over 25 and women overall are over the moon about Dwayne Johnson in a wig with a definite recommend of 78% and 70% respectively for Moana.
It’s a true WTF moment for the box office to a certain degree: Tracking was bullish with a $70M-$80M opening earlier this week with presales of $4M pointing to a $60M+ domestic start. And then this.
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More than anything, the shortfall here with Moana stateside boils down to timing, plain and simple. Wrong date and wrong year for this in the flesh take of what is one of Disney’s most popular animated franchises; and definitely too close to its predecessor, Moana 2, having arrived in theaters less than two years after that $1B-plus grossing sequel. It’s the third family film in less than a month after the huge success of Toy Story 5 and Illumination/Universal’s Minions & Monsters. Even though that latter film delivered its lowest opening in the franchise, Gru’s henchmen are having an excellent hold of -43% with $21M second weekend. That’s also not helping Moana.
Moviegoers love the Moana franchise overall. Again, third family film of late, and they just watched Moana 2, so why is there a need to rush out to it this weekend? It’s summer, and they can catch it during the week, or later as the next family title, which is significantly younger skewing; a toddler title, is Paramount/Spinmaster’s Paw Patrol: The Dino Movie on Aug. 14. It’s clear that the Moana faithful who showed up haven’t completely rejected the film. Critics have cried over the live-action Moana being a paint-by-numbers adaptation of the original film. There’s only one new song from near EGOT winner Lin-Manuel Miranda, the end credits ditty “Along the Way,” note when it comes to a precious IP like Moana, the filmmakers intentionally didn’t take massive big swings in the narrative. Doing so would mean ticking off the fans, and that was never in the cards.
So why did Disney date Moana here, so close to Toy Story 5 and Minions & Monsters? Remember, the period following July 4th is quite rich, the launchpad of such movies as Pirates of the Caribbean and Spider-Man: Homecoming. There aren’t any major studio releases on July 24, the weekend after The Odyssey (July 17) and before Spider-Man: Brand New Day (July 31). Disney didn’t want to be on that date. They didn’t want to be squashed between what could arguably be the two biggest openings of 2026, and they didn’t want to anywhere after Brand New Day in August. Better to play into the storm and be the alternative option. That was the thinking.
Live-action Moana, you’ll remember, was announced by Johnson and CEO Bob Iger during an annual shareholder meeting in April 2023. Iger and Disney Chairman Entertainment Studios Alan Bergman in a complete ‘what a great idea’ then flipped Disney+ Moana animated series into a feature sequel, that revamp announced in February 2024 for a Thanksgiving theatrical release that year (Disney urgently needed a title on the release schedule and they got one to the tune of $1B+ gross worldwide). As such the release date for live-action Moana was moved from July 2, 2025 to June 27, 2025 to finally this weekend (that last move made in April 2024). It was originally intended for Moana to start before the strike, but it got pushed to a July 2024 start date for a six month shoot in Hawaii and a water tank shoot in Georgia. Post took 60 weeks given that there was 2,000 shots in a $250M production that’s also heavy on VFX. Moana was originally packaged and greenlit during the administration of Motion Picture President Sean Bailey. However, he left in February 2024 to focus on Tron Ares, which he produced, with the new David Greenbaum era overseeing production on Moana.
Other stats on Moana: women showed up at 62% lead by women over 25 at 32% (a big Johnson fanbase) and 31% women under 25. Walk-up business was at 58% versus say the 51% walk-up business on the first Friday for Supergirl (another movie which fell apart this summer). Largest demo was 18-24 at 30% with the 18-34 bunch repping 55%. Among diverse moviegoers, Latino and Hispanic led at 32%, followed by 31% Caucasian, 16% Black, 13% Asian American and 8% Native American/other. Best areas of play are South, South Central and West with Hollywood’s El Capitan the pic’s highest grossing venue with a near $85K so far. PLFs are driving 28% of pic’s opening, Imax 9% for an overall 37% market share across premium screens. Eleven percent of those who bought tickets opted to watch in 3D. Thirty-nine percent in PostTrak exits said they came because Moana looked fun, 25% mentioned it was part of a franchise they love while 16% bought tickets for Johnson.
Warner Bros./Courtesy Everett Collection
New Line’s Evil Dead Burn did $6.7M stateside yesterday including previews and has a shot at touching $15M in its opening. Pic’s CinemaScore, despite a different director here in Sébastien Vanicek, gets a B CinemaScore ala previous 2023 installment from director Lee Cronin. The R-rated movie skews men at 59%, with 25-34 demo being the biggest at 39% with the diversity turnout at 36% Caucasian, 34% Latino and Hispanic, 17% Black, and 5% Asian American. PLFs are driving 18% of weekend ticket sales with best performance in South Central, East and West. AMC Burbank in Los Angeles market is the sequel’s best location so far with more than $30k.
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FRIDAY PM: In regards to how far Disney’s live-action take on Moana will go this weekend, this answer is not far, with afternoon estimates showing a previews/first Friday around $17 million at 3,875 theaters for a 3-day between $40M-$45M — well below the $60M-plus that was hoped for on the horizon. That puts the island princess at unfortunately the same level as Disney disaster Snow White, a film with a whole other set of baggage, saddled by star Rachel Zegler’s public remarks and political leanings, which led to a first day/previews of $16.2M and an awful $42.2M opening.
At $40M-$45M stateside and sporting a $250M production cost before a hundred million more or so in P&A, not even a prayer to Maui himself will save this film, unless families decide to take the time to do so Saturday. But no rival studio is seeing anything even near a $50M 3-day.
Second on the weekend is going to Illumination/Universal’s second weekend of Minions & Monsters with a solid hold of -46%, or $20M, at 4,244 theaters off a second Friday of $6.3M and running total by Sunday of $107.8M.
Disney/Pixar’s Toy Story 5 at 3,575 theaters is looking at a fourth Friday of $5.4M and 3-day of $18M, off 40%, which will make Buzz, Woody and Jessie fly past $400M by Sunday.
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Fourth belongs to New Line’s Evil Dead Burns at 3,004 with a $6M+ Friday including previews and a 3-day of $15M.
Courtesy Warner Bros. Pictures
The second Friday of Angel Studios’ Young Washington is around $2M, with a second weekend of $6.3M, -67%, for a running cume by Sunday of $32.9M.
Sixth goes to the wide expansion of A24/Annapurna’s The Invite with $2.2M today and a third weekend of $5.1M, +635%, and a running total of $6.4M by EOD Sunday.
PREVIOUSLY, Friday AM: Disney’s live-action Moana made $4.5 million in previews from Thursday showtimes that began 2 p.m.
No audience score yet, but critics have walloped this live-action version directed by Thomas Kail with Maui’s hook at 35% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s lower than the live-action version of Snow White (39%) starring Rachel Zegler, Will Smith’s Aladdin (57%) and Dumbo (46%).
Previews here for Moana are higher than Snow White ($3.5M, $42.2M opening) and Dumbo ($2.6M, $45.99M opening), but lower than Little Mermaid ($10.3M previews, $95.5M 3-day opening) and Aladdin ($7M previews, $91.5M 3-day opening). They’re also well below the Tuesday previews before Thanksgiving of Moana 2 ($13.8M, $139.7M 3-day).
Here’s the thing: Earlier this week we heard that Moana was hoping for a low-$60M start, but exhibitors pushed that down to a high-$40Ms projection. Presales heading into the weekend were at $4M. Yikes. Success with the latest Dwayne Johnson movie relies on walk-up business Saturday, and the fear is that the family space is crowded with the mega success of Toy Story 5 and the recent lackluster release of Minions & Monsters, not to mention it’s too much Moana, too soon, this version arriving less than two years from the box office tsunami that was the animated Moana 2.
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We have confirmed that the live-action Moana cost $250M before global P&A, which is higher than the $200M price tag of Johnson/Seven Bucks’ Amazon MGM Studios’ production Red One and even the Rock’s Red Notice.
If Moana comes in well under its $60M+ domestic forecast, the hope is that midweek business makes up for the shortfall as the feature will remain the only fresh family title during the onslaught of Universal’s The Odyssey and Sony/Marvel Studios’ Spider-Man: Brand New Day, and before Paramount lets PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie off its collar August 14.
Separately, New Line’s Sam Raimi-produced Evil Dead Burn did $2.3M in previews, which is $200,000 shy of previous installment Evil Dead Rise‘s $2.5M. That number translated into a $23.5M opening for the 2023 movie from Lee Cronin, which was 85% certified fresh with critics. Evil Dead Burn from Sébastien Vanicek stands at 72% certified fresh with critics. No audience score yet.
Minions & Monsters counts a nine-day total of $87.7M after launching on Wednesday, July 1, that total running 47% behind Despicable Me 4 (another Wednesday opener) over the same period. The latter Illumination/Universal title ended its run at $361M stateside.
The rest of the week is as follows at the B.O.:
2. Toy Story 5 (Dis) 3,965 theaters, Wk $49.8M (-54%), Total $385.2M/Wk 3
3. Young Washington (ANG) 2,725 theaters, Wk $26.6M/Wk 1
4. Supergirl (WB) 3,602 theaters, Wk $13.5M (-72%), Total $62.M/Wk 2
5. Obsession (Foc) 2,650 theaters, Wk $9.4M (-41%), Total $249.5M/Wk 8
