Strong Economic Data Masks Growing Strains from 2025 Tariffs

United states news

  September 30th, 2025|Written by
IndexBox

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The American economy demonstrated resilience in the second quarter of 2025, with GDP growing 3.8% according to a report on September 27, driven by a 2.5% increase in consumer spending.

Read also: Impact of Tariffs Muted by Exemptions and Consumer Resilience

However, this top-line growth is being propped up primarily by the highest earners, with recent research from the Boston Fed confirming a Moody’s Analytics finding that the top 10% of households account for half of all spending. Data from the IndexBox platform indicates that for the broader population, financial pressures are mounting. Average credit scores are declining for many Americans, who are also struggling with student loan repayments. “We’re living in a very dangerous situation, both politically and macroeconomically,” said analyst Kulyk. He warned of potential social unrest as middle- and upper-middle-class households making around $200,000 annually begin to feel the economic squeeze.

In the home goods sector, President Donald Trump’s tariff policies are creating “total turmoil,” according to Barbara Karpf, founder of DecoratorsBest. Companies are discontinuing product lines, and overseas manufacturers are left with goods stranded in production or transit. Karpf noted that even for businesses open to reshoring, the necessary machinery has become prohibitively expensive due to earlier tariffs, leading to workforce reductions and closures.

While Karpf’s company remains stable, she has paused hiring and investment plans. She expressed understanding for the administration’s goals but criticized the implementation. “The randomness of it and the lack of notice, this is not a way to do business,” she said. “You can’t grow or flourish, you just pray that you wake up and there’s not another tariff tweet.”

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform