SATURDAY AM WRITETHRU after 12:30am post: Spider-Man: Brand New Day has banked a $19M Friday for what’s shaping up to be a third weekend around $67M, -54%, which takes its running cume to $782.8M. By end of tomorrow, if those figures hold, Brand New Day will rank as the fifth highest grossing domestic movie of all-time behind Force Awakens ($936.6M), Avengers: Endgame ($858.3m), Spider-Man: No Way Home ($814.8M) and Avatar ($785.2M). The Destin Daniel Cretton directed movie is booked at 4,539 theaters.
Among the best third weekends ever at the domestic B.O, Brand New Day ranks fourth, ahead of Black Panther ($66.3M) and Avengers: Endgame ($63.2M) with the record still held by Force Awakens ($90.2M). By comparison, Spider-Man: No Way Home‘s third weekend was $56M.
It’s the 33rd weekend of the year, and Brand New Day‘s $67M is the most amount of money ever made by a pic on this frame in the No. 1 spot post Covid. The biggest 33rd weekend of the year post pandemic will be this one with all titles grossing $158M, ahead of the same frame in 2024 when all movies amounted to $140.4M per Box Office Mojo (that’s when Alien: Romulus opened to $42M).
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At a time when everyone is going back to school (K-12 were 51% off yesterday), the family audience is split this weekend, with some going to Spider-Man, and others going to one of two dinosaur movies: Paramount/Spin Master’s PG-rated Paw Patrol: The Dino Movie, which looks like it’s overperforming at $20M or Warner Bros/Bad Robot’sThe End of Oak Street which believes it has a path to $20M (though some see it under that). The pre-schooler Dino Movie settled for $7.35M on Friday at 3,545 theaters and an A CinemaScore, while The End of Oak Street, was $8.1M at 3,446 sites after a B CinemaScore (that’s just under the B+ of August Warner PG-13 hit The Meg which debuted to $45.4M). It’s the second solid A for Paw Patrol after 2023’s The Mighty sequel. The 2021 Paw Patrol movie received an A- (puppies can’t always be perfect). A good 63% definite recommend for Dino Movie in Rentrak/Screen Engine PostTrak exits.
Paw Patrol: Dino Movie is more family friendly than End of Oak Street (hello, it’s about a family and they’re chased by dinosaurs, just like in Jurassic World), pulling in 50% parents, 36% kids under 12 and 14% general audiences. Per PostTrak, Oak Street‘s inhabitants were 10% kids under 12 with 17% family adult. Diversity demos on Dino Movie was 43% Caucasian, 29% Latino and Hispanic, 14% Black, 8% Native American and other, and 6% Asian American.
Oak Street was tracking heavy with women because of the Anne Hathaway factor, but women over 25 were the second biggest to attend at 28% after men over 25 at 45%, followed by men under 25 at 14% and women under 25 at 13%. A meh 51% definite recommend overall for Oak Street. Diversity demos were 48% Caucasian, 24% Latino and Hispanic, 13% Black, 10% Asian American and 5% Native American and other.
Paw Patrol Dino Movie has no PLFs, while Oak Street has a mix of Imax and PLFs accounting for close to 15% of the weekend.
For Dino Movie, the highest grossing theater is the Cinemark in North Canton, Ohio with just over $15K. Oak Street‘s biggest house is the AMC in Tustin, CA with just over $17k.
Second, still powered by Imax, goes to Universal’s fifth weekend of The Odyssey with $23M, an amazing -27% hold, after a $6.5M Friday at 3,217 locations. Running cume by EOD Sunday is over a half billion stateside or $504.4M.
Busting into 5th place is the documentary Katseye: Wild Hearts about the Los Angeles based girl group from Trafalgar. The pic is looking $3.6M for the weekend after $2.2M yesterday at 724 sites. Solid numbers, but front-loaded. Trailer is below:
Focus Features’ release of West End capture musical, Six: The Musical Live at 1,462 theaters with a 3-day of $3M off a Friday of $840K is coming in at 6th place while Angel Studios’ Reagan vs. Gorbachev movie The Brink of War which is looking like $2.75M after a $1.1M Friday and a solid A CinemaScore. Six had OK cash in Canada, Orlando, NYC and LA.
Brink of War pulled in 60% male/40% female with a strong 61% definite recommend. The over 55 crowd showed up the most at 48%, by far the biggest demo for the feature. Diversity demos were 70% Caucasian, 13% Latino and Hispanic, 6% Black, and 6% Asian American. Wayfarer Theatres in Chicago is the top grossing location with just under $5K.
The date is over for Uni’s second weekend of One Night Only at 3,012 theaters with a second weekend of $2.1M, -61%, and a running cume of $10.1M. Friday was $640K.
Chart coming..
FRIDAY AM: Warner Bros/Bad Robot’s PG-13 The End of Oak Street came in at $2.5M for Thursday night U.S. previews. The running global tally is $6.5M with key openings in Italy and France. Global outlook is still $38M WW-$48M WW with the foreign haul likely outweighing domestic. Again, that U.S. preview take is around what Rampage did pre-Covid and under what August family pic Blue Beetle did. End of Oak Street‘s preview cash is also higher than original PG-13 sci-fi movie The Creator ($1.6M) which opened to $14M. Previews are also on par with another original sci-fi movie, though R-rated, Mickey 17 which counted $2.5M and opened to $19M.
Paramount
Paramount and Spin Master’s Paw Patrol: The Dino Movie had previews of $1.9M stateside at 2,800 theaters. The pic bowed in 30 territories last weekend including France, UK and Germany with a running cume that’s now at $35.4M. The domestic outlook is mid-to-high teens. The previous installment, 2023’s Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie didn’t have Thursday night previews, but posted a first Friday of $6.8M and 3-day of $22.7M.
Sony/Marvel Studio’s Spider-Man: Brand New Day ends its second week with $205.7M, with a running domestic cume of $715.8M. That second week is higher than Avengers: Endgame ($186.5M) but under the second week of Star Wars: Force Awakens ($261.1M).
Week’s top 5:
1.) Spider-Man: Brand New Day (Sony) 4,487 theaters, Wk $205.7M (-60%), Total $715.8M/Wk 2
2.) The Odyssey (Uni) 3,603 theaters, Wk $51.7M (-39%), total $481.4M/Wk 4
3.) One Night Only (Uni) 3,012 theaters, Wk $7.8M/Wk 1
4. Toy Story 5 (Dis) 2,660 theaters, Wk $6.7M (-39%), Total $473.1M/Wk 8
5. Minions & Monsters (Uni) 2,451 theaters, Wk $5.77M (-43%) , total $178.6M/Wk 6
THURSDAY PM: This weekend will belong to Sony/Marvel Studios’ Spider-Man: Brand New Day, but the bright new shiny event title hopeful is Warner Bros/Bad Robot’s The End of Oak Street, which in U.S. previews Thursday night is estimated to do around $2 million-plus after showtimes that began at 1 p.m. at 3,200 sites.
Note that it’s still early with that forecast, and this PG-13 feature is leaning family given how women are the most notable on tracking, not just with mothers but also with Anne Hathaway fans. Ewan McGregor also stars. Some PG-13 comps right now include pre-Covid Rampage, which did $2.4M in 2018, and post-Covid Blue Beetle, which did $3.3M in previews and opened in mid-August 2023 to $25M.
Rentrak reports that only 51% of K-12 schools are off as kids head back to school. On the brighter side for the motion picture industry, 95% colleges remain off.
It Follows filmmaker David Robert Mitchell directed, wrote and produced Oak Street, about a neighborhood that suddenly finds itself next door to a prehistoric jungle with dinosaurs who become worse intruders than the neighbor’s dog. The movie will share Imax with Universal’s The Odyssey and PLFs with Spider-Man: Brand New Day for a domestic outlook that’s between $18M-$23M and a foreign estimate between $20M-$25M in 74 territories. The End of Oak Street will pave a way to France, Germany, Australia, Brazil, Mexico, Spain, UK, China and Japan this weekend at 24,000 screens. We’ve heard a varying range for the production cost from net $80M to $92M (there’s plenty of VFX in the movie). Rotten Tomatoes critics are at 85% certified fresh.
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Also opening wide this weekend is Paramount and Spin Master’s PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie at 3,545 theaters and Angel Studios’ The Brink of War at 2,083 in North America. As we told you, Brand New Day is expecting to do between $57M-$72M in its third weekend stateside.
Tonight’s Thursday preview estimate comes from sources.
